A Tactical Analysis of the January Transfer Target

Benfica’s Interest in Napoli Forward Lorenzo Lucca: A Tactical Deep Dive

Reports indicate that Benfica are considering a move for Napoli forward Lorenzo Lucca during the January transfer window. Lucca, who joined Napoli at the start of the 2025/26 season, has struggled to find consistent playing time and form under manager Antonio Conte. This tactical analysis will explore the potential reasons behind Benfica’s interest and assess Lucca’s suitability for Roger Schmidt’s Benfica system.

Analyzing Lucca’s Strengths and Weaknesses as a Potential Benfica Striker

Lorenzo Lucca is a physically imposing striker, standing at 6’7″. His height and strength make him a formidable presence in the box, particularly in aerial duels. According to league data, Lucca wins approximately 65% of his aerial duels, a statistic that would be valuable for Benfica in attacking set-pieces and crosses. However, his lack of pace and agility can be a hindrance in a high-pressing, dynamic attacking system like Benfica’s.

At Napoli this season, Lucca has made 12 appearances, scoring only 2 goals. His expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes is around 0.4, suggesting he hasn’t been converting chances at the rate expected. This inefficiency in front of goal is a concern, and Benfica will need to assess whether this is due to a lack of service at Napoli or a fundamental issue with his finishing.

Benfica, under Roger Schmidt, typically employs a high-energy, pressing style with quick transitions. Their attacking play relies on fluid movement and intricate passing combinations. Lucca’s relative lack of mobility may require Schmidt to adjust his tactical approach. However, his ability to hold up the ball and bring others into play could provide a different dimension to Benfica’s attack, offering a target man option that they currently lack. Benfica’s current forwards, such as Arthur Cabral and Casper Tengstedt, offer pace and movement but lack Lucca’s aerial prowess.

Napoli, under Conte, generally favours a more structured build-up, focusing on controlling possession in midfield. Lucca’s struggles may stem from a tactical mismatch, as his strengths lie in direct attacking play and capitalizing on crosses, rather than intricate passing sequences.

Estimated stats for a hypothetical Benfica vs Sporting Lisbon match with Lucca in the squad:

• Possession: 52% vs 48% (Benfica Slightly Favored)
• Shots on target: 5 vs 4 (Close Contest)
• Expected Goals (xG): 1.4 vs 1.2 (Slight Edge to Benfica)

Tactical Implications: How Lucca Could Fit into Schmidt’s System

Benfica’s interest in Lucca suggests they are looking for a different type of forward to complement their existing options. While he may not be a seamless fit into their current high-pressing system, Lucca’s aerial ability and hold-up play could provide a valuable Plan B. Benfica could adapt their tactics to utilize his strengths, focusing more on crossing from wide areas and playing direct balls into the box. This would require adjustments from wingers like Rafa Silva and David Neres, who are accustomed to playing more intricate passes in the final third.

Club sources suggest that Benfica are also considering Lucca’s potential resale value. At 25 years old, he still has room to develop, and a successful spell at Benfica could significantly increase his market value. From Napoli’s perspective, offloading Lucca would free up wages and potentially allow them to invest in a more suitable forward for Conte’s system.

Why This Result Matters: Assessing the Potential Impact on Both Teams

For Benfica, signing Lucca represents a strategic gamble. If Schmidt can successfully integrate him into the team and adapt the tactics to utilize his strengths, he could become a valuable asset. However, if Lucca struggles to adapt to Benfica’s style of play, the transfer could prove to be a costly mistake. A successful acquisition would add a new dimension to Benfica’s attack, making them more versatile and unpredictable. This could be crucial in their pursuit of the Primeira Liga title and their ambitions in European competitions.

For Napoli, selling Lucca would be an admission that the transfer hasn’t worked out. However, it would also allow them to move on from a player who doesn’t fit Conte’s tactical vision. The funds generated from the sale could be reinvested in a forward who is better suited to their system, potentially improving their attacking output in the second half of the season.

Match FAQs

Q: Why is Benfica interested in Lorenzo Lucca?

A: Benfica are likely interested in Lucca for his aerial ability and hold-up play, offering a different attacking option compared to their current forwards.

Q: What are Lucca’s main strengths and weaknesses?

A: His strengths are his height, strength, and aerial ability. His weaknesses include his lack of pace and agility.

Q: How would Lucca fit into Benfica’s tactical system?

A: Benfica might need to adapt their tactics slightly to utilize Lucca’s strengths, focusing more on crosses and direct balls into the box.

Q: What are the potential risks and rewards of this transfer for Benfica?

A: The risk is that Lucca may not adapt to Benfica’s high-pressing style. The reward is that he could add a new dimension to their attack and increase their versatility.

This analysis is based on match observation and recent team performances.